Attention-seeking by an exiled tycoon and former
Kremlin powerbroker, or the musings of a man who
remains well connected in Russia and knows more
about the country than anyone realizes?
Boris Berezovsky recently leapt back into the
political spotlight in an interview with Italian
newspaper Reppublica, in which he drew a bleak
picture of Russia's future, referring to
potato pearl
growing economic and social tension aggravated by
attempts to muzzle the free press. To top the
interview off, the tycoon suggested that by the end
of the year, Russia would have a new president.
Is there something to all this? Berezovsky helped
create now-President Vladimir Putin before the 1999
parliamentary elections. Then, it seems, there was
a falling out before the presidential election, and
Berezovsky's role in Putin's ascendancy was
minimal. Berezovsky then went into exile, and now
he says Putin cannot hold onto his power.
Analysts' takes on the situation are dependent on
their assessment of the general state of the
country. Pessimists think Putin is paving the way
to upheaval with his own policies and that
Berezovsky will only have to cash in on the growing
discontent; optimists see no reason to fear that
Berezovsky will start a war against the president.
"Berezovsky is just doing this as a PR stunt so
that people don't forget him," said Andrei
Neshchadin, executive director of the Expert
Institute, a political think tank. "But in reality,
his attempts will get him absolutely nowhere."
But one Moscow analyst, who knows Berezovsky
personally and wished to remain anonymous, warned
that such an attitude was dangerously complacent.
He said that for all his sensationalism, Berezovsky
is good at forecasting the situation in Russia long
before anyone else.
"He's got a good feeling for strategic matters, and
he's still well-informed," the analyst said. "I
think he's right that if more isn't done in the
real sector [of the economy] and if a number of
other negative trends aren't checked, then there
will be trouble."
Mikhail Delyagin, director of the Institute for the
Problems of Globalization, concurred. "Berezovsky's
attempts are very serious because discontent [in
Russia] is growing of its own accord. Berezovsky
could come in and lead this process, direct it.
There have been such precedents."
Most Russian media outlets passed over Berezovsky's
Reppublica interview in silence. But during his
press conference last week, Putin was asked what he
thought of the tycoon's threats to topple him by
autumn.
"Boris Berezovsky, who's that?" was Putin's reply.
After waiting a few seconds for journalists to
realize he was joking, Putin said: "He was a former
secretary of the Security Council, then a former
someone else again. Now he's a former what? A
former State Duma deputy. … I've known Boris
Abramovich a long time. He's an insatiable and
tireless sort, always appointing and dismissing
people. Well, let him keep toiling away."
Putin implied that he knew what Berezovsky was up
to, but said that he was more interested in hearing
what Berezovsky had to say. "It wouldn't be a bad
thing if he points out some things we're not doing
right and makes them public. We should only be
grateful, because it will help us take action to
pearl strand
wholesale improve things, and that's not bad.
He's not a stupid man and he could dig something up."
But Berezovsky is doing more than preaching doom
and gloom – the latest issue of controversial
investigative weekly Versia carried three articles
focusing on the different options for Berezovsky's
fight against Putin.
According to Versia, one potential leader of a
future opposition among regional leaders is St.
Petersburg Gov. Vladimir Yakovlev. Berezovsky's
people are also working with Irkutsk Gov. Boris
Govorin.
Delyagin said – and this has also been suggested
elsewhere – that another replacement candidate for
Putin could be recently elected Ulyanovsk Gov.
Vladimir Shamanov, a leading general in the early
stages of the war in Chechnya.
"This is [Russian big business'] old dream – a
Russian Pinochet who will incarnate an
authoritarian style of rule but at the same time
listen obediently to his creators," Delyagin said.
Delyagin sees housing and utilities reform as
posing the biggest danger to Putin. Rates are set
to rise in autumn, leading to debts, power cutoffs
and people being evicted from their homes for
nonpayment. This would be enough to set off public
discontent, Delyagin said, and if someone channels
this protest energy in their own interests, the
results could be serious for Putin.
The governors are already angry about their loss of
power and Putin leaving them exposed to the threat
of public anger over housing and utilities reform.
They could easily join any opposition, Delyagin
said, laying the blame on Moscow to save their own
heads.
"When Putin begins housing and utilities reform,
this will kill the governors," Delyagin added.
"Water, sewerage, heat, light – these are all local
natural monopolies and they'll be able to push
prices up as they please. People will first have
their utilities cut off and then be evicted."
But the Expert Institute's Neshchadin said that
going by sociological studies, even if events
follow the worst-case scenario, Putin still has a
big margin. "He's doing the right thing by putting
the emphasis on local authorities taking
responsibility," he said.
Neshchadin didn't see that there was any social
group whose interests Berezovsky could hope to
pearl
strand represent. "If he can't find a base upon
which to build his social group, then it's all in
vain," he said. "For business he's a persona non
grata, and the trade unions won't let him in either."
But Delyagin said that Putin doesn't suit the new
oligarchy and called him a man with a messianic
complex to "save the Motherland."
"But [Putin] either doesn't understand the danger
[from Berezovsky] or doesn't have enough strength
of will," he said. "Though as long as he's in the
Kremlin, as long as he has a pencil, paper and the
right to sign, he's got all the power in his hands
to play the game he wants."